Intel's Process Roadmap to 2025: with 4nm, 3nm, 20A and 18A?!
by Dr. Ian Cutress on July 26, 2021 5:00 PM ESTSidebar on Intel EUV
In all of these announcements, one thing to highlight is Intel mentioning its relationship with ASML, the sole company that manufactures the EUV machines powering production of leading edge semiconductor manufacturing.
ASML Wilton
ASML is a unique company in that it is the only one that can produce these machines, because the technology behind them is often tied up with its partners and research, but also because all the major silicon manufacturers are heavily invested in ASML. For any other company to compete against ASML would require building a separate network of expertise, a decade of innovation and design, and a lot of capital. None of the major silicon vendors want to disturb this balance and go off on their own, lest it shuts them out of the latest manufacturing technology, and no research fund sees competing against the embedded norm as a viable opportunity. This means that anyone wanting EUV specialist technology has to go to ASML.
In 2012, it was reported that Intel, Samsung, and TSMC all invested in ASML. This was, at the time, to jumpstart EUV development along with migrating from 300mm wafers to 450mm wafers. While we haven’t moved to 450mm wafers yet (and there are doubts we will any time in the next decade), EUV is now here. Intel’s 2012 investment of $2.1 billion gave them a 10% stake in ASML, with Intel stating that it would continue investing up to a 25% stack. Those stakes are now below the 5% reporting threshold, but all three of the major foundry customers are still big owners, especially as ASML’s market cap has risen from $24 Billion in 2012 to $268 Billion in 2021 (surpassing Intel).
As major investors but also ASML’s customers, the race has been on for these foundries to acquire enough EUV machines to meet demand. TSMC reported in August 2020 that it has 50% of all EUV machines manufactured at ASML for its leading edge processes. Intel is a little behind, especially as none of Intel’s products in the market yet use any EUV. EUV will only intercept Intel’s portfolio with its new Intel 4 process, where it will be used extensively, mostly on the BEOL. But Intel still has to order machines when they need them, especially as there are reports that ASML currently has backorders of 50 EUV machines. In 2021, ASML is expected to manufacture around 45-50 machines, and 50-60 in 2022. The exact number of machines Intel has right now, or has ordered from ASML, is unknown. It is expected that each one has a ~$150m price tag, and can take 4-6 months to install.
With all that being said, Intel’s discussion point today is that it will be the lead customer for ASML’s next generation EUV technology known as High-NA EUV. NA in this context relates to the ‘numerical aperture’ of the EUV machine, or to put simply, how wide you can make the EUV beam inside the machine before it hits the wafer. The wider the beam before you hit the wafer, the more intense it can be when it hits the wafer, which increases how accurately the lines are printed. Normally in lithography to get better printed lines, we move from single patterning to double patterning (or quad patterning) to get that effect, which decreases yield. The move to High-NA would mean that the ecosystem can stay on single patterning for longer, which some have quoted as allowing the industry to ‘stay aligned with Moore’s Law longer’.
| ASML's EUV Shipments | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||||||||||||||
| Actual | 2 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 9 | - | - | ||
| Target (Total) | - | - | - | 20 (18) | 30 (26) | 35 (33) | 45-50 | ||||||||||||||
| 2018 and beyond is split per quarter for actual shipped numbers Data taken from ASML's Financial Reports |
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Current EUV systems are NA 0.33, while the new systems are NA 0.55. ASML’s latest update suggests that it expects customers to be using High-NA for production in 2025/2026, which means that Intel is likely going to be getting the first machine (ASML NXE:5000 we think) in mid-2024. Exactly how many High-NA machines ASML intends to produce in that time frame is unknown, as if they flood the market, having the first won’t be a big win. However if there is a slow High-NA ramp, it will be up to Intel to capitalize on its advantage.
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GeoffreyA - Friday, July 30, 2021 - link
"it makes more sense to use nonsense-numbers backed up by half-truths."Fantastic.
mode_13h - Sunday, August 1, 2021 - link
> it makes more sense to use nonsense-numbers backed up by half-truths.Or just drop any pretense of meaning and use some other scheme, such as Major.Minor version numbers. Or, even just use sequential integers.
mode_13h - Monday, July 26, 2021 - link
> Intel should've just moved to a transistor-density-based node naming.Agreed, but they could either continue using modifiers like SF and ESF or I'd say they should go with letters.
GeoffreyA - Friday, July 30, 2021 - link
Letters.Amandtec - Tuesday, July 27, 2021 - link
You can measure what you want and they will find a way to score better. Transistors are used for different things so they will start putting huge piles of useless high density transistors into the design to bump up the density measure. At the end of the day, they should stop talking about nodes altogether and talk about sing/multi/heat per dollar - of course, they can't do that because nobody would but another Intel chip for a couple years.TheJian - Tuesday, July 27, 2021 - link
Agreed, lets just go buy transistors, or list both. People can compare whatever makes more sense to them...LOL. Agree with OP too, joining the fake club while Intel tried to stay real for years. OH well, if you can't beat them, join them and come up with something new (2025)...LOL. Whatever works. Buying up 3nm was great too, will keep others from gaining far more NET INCOME from getting said 3nm wafers and competing with their own top end stuff. Direct those 3nm chips at as much server/mobile you can (maybe some desktop top end chips, the top3 maybe) or just make a TON of 3nm gpus with whatever is left all year. I hope Pat bought 18mo of 3nm so nobody else gets them. Apple got batch1, messed it up on the 2nd, so hopefully Intel bought 3-4B of them until the cash runs out on it. Make everything AMD thinks is a cash cow, and leave them with stuff on the shelf (and written off a year later...LOL).Anything still left? GO 3nm GPU to hurt everyone. Meaning, apple coming right after 3nm cpu (gpu just waiting for wafers surely to avoid AMD/NV next, developing now in home consoles likely), but longer now, going 4nm..LOL, AMD, NVDA NET hurt here too. I'll be shocked if pat didn't nail down even more than planned when apple stepped out of batch2.
30K wafers were batch1 - How many in batch 2? 100k? Make the largest gpus you can to eat them all (assuming AMD's top server/mobile dies are attacked already with coming chips), and watch as AMD/NV Q reports go down, and all 3 rejig their next parts on 4nm etc...ROFL (apple already did it). 6nm Warhol dead (well, the fake 6nm process that is). You get the point.
We all need 3nm gpus anyway right? Heck most of you would probably take ANYTHING these days...LOL. Intel to the gpu rescue Q1 2023 with 3nm TSMC all year (and 6nm coming up??)?? Sell them DIRECT like a NVDA founders cards, and only ONE per household AND/or visa etc. I think gamers would warm to Intel if they helped us get cards soon. 6nm sounds good to me if you can't get any 7nm yet really. No I refuse to pay 2-3x, heck for that matter I refuse to pay over MSRP. I'll wait, build HTPCs, etc etc. I won't bite until price isn't stupid even though I can afford it.
mode_13h - Wednesday, July 28, 2021 - link
> I refuse to pay 2-3x, heck for that matter I refuse to pay over MSRP.Dude, you *just* posted in another thread that people should stop whining about high component prices and live like peasants to save up whatever it costs to buy the latest GPU!
FWIW, I'm with you. I'm fortunate that I don't need the latest & greatest GPU, so I plan to wait until I can get one at a reasonable price.
Spunjji - Wednesday, July 28, 2021 - link
TheJian doesn't make sense *within* a single post, let alone between them.Spunjji - Wednesday, July 28, 2021 - link
"I hope Pat bought 18mo of 3nm so nobody else gets them."Why? That would fuck things up for everyone.
Spunjji - Wednesday, July 28, 2021 - link
Agreed. It doesn't make much sense to decry the disconnect between the numbers and reality, and then just jump on board with the existing nonsense!