What’s Next for GlobalFoundries?

In lieu of pursuing a 7nm platform, GlobalFoundries will be embarking on a multifaceted strategy for revenue and profitability. This strategy includes scaling out the 14LPP/12LP platform for various applications that are set to emerge in the 5G era, continuing to evolve the FD-SOI platform, spinning off its ASIC development business, further supporting its existing clients with their 14LPP/12LP products, and some other things.

Scaling Out the 14LPP/12LP

Originally designed for mobile SoCs and some other chips in mind, GlobalFoundries' 14LPP manufacturing technology is used to make CPUs and GPUs at GlobalFoundries. Furthermore, the company has designed two variations of this fabrication process. Whereas the base process used up to 13 metal layers and 9T libraries, 14HP was developed specifically for IBM and tailored for performance at the cost of transistor density, using up to 17 metal layers and 12T libraries. Meanwhile, 12LP — aimed at a broad spectrum of applications, including APUs/CPUs, automotive and other — uses 13 layers and 7.5T libraries, giving a 10% additional performance or power improvement as well as a 15% area reduction vs. the 14LPP.

Going forward, GlobalFoundries plans to offer a broader spectrum of technologies based on its 14 nm node. The move is not truly surprising. Samsung Foundry also offers three versions of its 14 nm processes: 14LPP for high-performance SoCs, 14LPC for compact SoCs, and 14LPU for ultra-low-power chips. So far, GlobalFoundries has confirmed three key markets of its future FinFET process technologies: RF, embedded memory, and low-power. In addition, the company plans to offer its 14LPP/12LP platform with enhanced performance and/or higher transistor density (for cost reduction). To do so, the company will be leveraging the knowledge and techniques they developed as part of the 7LP platform. But naturally Gary Patton does not want to disclose the nature of these innovations or any actual performance targets.

If the company succeeds in the integration of RF capabilities into FinFET-based chips, that will be a world’s first. In theory, such chips would have a notable edge over existing RF solutions, which are made using rather rough process technologies. In addition to regular RF capabilities, GlobalFoundries plans to offer features for mmWave radios. Embedded MRAM will also be another important feature of SoCs made using a FinFET fabrication tech as, again, nobody uses such transistors for embedded memory right now.

At the moment, GlobalFoundries is still forming its new development teams, so we do not know exactly how many projects the company will eventually work on. Meanwhile, keep in mind that any project started today will materialize at best in 2020, with actual products going into HVM in 2021. This will be in time for various devices for high-growth markets, but AMD will naturally wind down its 14LPP/12LP orders to GlobalFoundries over the 2019 – 2020 timeframe, reducing the company’s revenue and profits. Note that at present both the RF and embedded memory technologies for FinFET are in a pathfinding stage, so it is very hard to say when exactly GlobalFoundries comes up with appropriate process technologies.

Investing in FD-SOI

In addition to developing specialized versions of its FinFET-based process technologies, GlobalFoundries will continue to invest in its FDX-branded FD SOI-based platforms, such as 22FDX and 12FDX. Gary Patton did not pre-announce any new versions of the company’s FD-SOI fabrication processes, but clearly indicated that the FDX will remain very important for GlobalFoundries, which is not surprising as GF and Samsung Foundry are the only foundries to offer this tech.

Spinning Off ASICs

Designing chips for a new process technology is always a challenge both from engineering and financial points of view, especially for smaller companies. In a bid to help its customers to develop various SoCs, GlobalFoundries established its ASIC Solutions (ASICs) division, which helps the company’s customers in designing chips. Besides usual things like process development kits (PDKs), various design libraries, silicon-proven memory solutions, interfaces, and other necessary things, ASICs offers support from chip design, methodology, test and packaging teams.

Obviously, GlobalFoundries’ customers going forward will benefit from ASICs IP and teams. However, to ensure that the division continues to attract high-volume work, GlobalFoundries will spin it off and enable it to work with process technologies from other contract makers of semiconductors.

The Fate of EUV Tools

One of the questions we asked GlobalFoundries during a briefing concerning its strategic shift was about the fate of two ASML Twinscan NXE machines installed in Fab 8. At this point the company has not made any decisions, but it intends to consult with ASML and find out what would be the best use of these tools. In theory, GlobalFoundries could keep them to speed up prototyping or even production, but since they require a special treatment, keeping them without using them extensively for HVM may not be a good idea.

Some Thoughts

Until today, GlobalFoundries, Samsung Foundry, and TSMC were the only three remaining contract makers of semiconductors to offer leading-edge process technologies for logic. With GF dropping out from the race, Samsung and TSMC will be the only contract foundries remaining. (While Intel technically has foundry operations, they've had minimal impact on the industry).

For GlobalFoundries, the move has pros and cons. On the one hand the lion’s share of semiconductor industry revenue will be earned from chips made using ’12 nm’ and larger nodes even in 2022, according to Gartner’s findings and cited by GlobalFoundries. Evidently, by not competing for the leading edge, GF will reduce its R&D costs and necessity to build ultra-expensive EUV fabs for 2020 and onwards. Moreover, with specialized technologies sometimes tailored for particular clients, the company will better avoid directly competing against Samsung and TSMC in certain cases. Nonetheless, said foundries are going to compete for emerging devices as well, so they are going to design their own specialized fabrication processes (Samsung in particular will need them for itself). Therefore, GlobalFoundries is not exactly jumping into a blue ocean here.

What remains to be seen is how well GlobalFoundries manages to execute on the timely development of multiple new manufacturing processes and land new customers to fill Fab 8. The company will keep working with AMD for many years to come in fabbing current-generation CPUs and GPUs, and then switching exclusively to wafers with embedded APUs/GPUs as well as with first-gen EPYC dies, as these products have very long lifecycles. However, the number of wafers GlobalFoundries processes for AMD will be dropping rapidly starting from 2019. Whether GF will be able to substitute AMD’s orders with orders from enough smaller players to Fab 8 full utilized is something only time will tell.

While it is sad to see GlobalFoundries leaving the ‘bleeding edge’ field, it is evident that the company’s odds against Samsung and TSMC were not high enough for the owner and the management to take the risks. Therefore, it looks like ‘scaling out’ by offering a set of specialized (and maybe even unique) process technologies instead of ‘scaling up’ and offer another ‘bleeding edge’ node might just be a better bet for GlobalFoundries.

Related Reading:

7LP Canned Due to Strategy Shift GlobalFoundries Press Release
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  • Atari2600 - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    How much of those billions had they already invested though? At this point, I'd expect that over 95% of the funds were already committed and they are actually not saving too much.

    Sure - they would have lost more money on initial ramp of 7nm - but would they then gain more back over the next 20 years by having 7nm to offer clients, and stopping development of any smaller nodes beyond 7nm?
  • BurntMyBacon - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    On the other hand, (assuming things were coming along as well as they say) they're not far off from their targeted launch date and most of the research costs and initial fabrication capability costs (and associated equipment) are already sunk. One might make the case that they could have recouped some of those losses if they had launched the first 7nm process and ceased development after that. As it is, they have two extremely expensive ASML Twinscan NXE devices already installed that they no longer have use for (re-purposing them may or may not be practical). This all seems like they gave up a bird in the hand for two in the bush.
  • rahvin - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    The biggest factor in the cancellation is probably the cost escalation. If the 7nm fab had come in at the $8 Billion predicted a few years ago they probably would have went ahead but when EUV costs went crazy the resulting fab costs went to ridiculous. There is no conceivable way GloFo could have built a fab costing $20 Billion. They didn't have the revenue or financing for such a cost. At $8 Billion the fab was within their spending with revenues of $6 billion or so, but a capital expense that's 4 times your annual revenue? I doubt there's a company in existence that could afford that without absolutely guaranteed returns.

    This is the consequence of the EUV price increases and those costs weren't known until very recently.
  • levizx - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    Plenty of people still uses 65nm. Besides, 14/12nm is very competitive, 5/3nm won't be much different from 7nm, we are talking about 3 steps before the end of the road here.
  • levizx - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    *90nm
  • transistortechnologist - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    90nm was the first sub-micron fabrication technology? You're forgetting about
    700 nm
    500 nm
    350 nm
    250 nm
    180 nm
    130 nm
    it's been a long road and many of these older nodes are still in volume production
  • HiDensity - Wednesday, August 29, 2018 - link

    Well...the former IBM fab (now GF) in Vermont is just that. It's a 200mm fab that never went below 90nm. Instead they diversified their offerings. Found a niche space in RF and have been running close to fully loaded for years now (sometimes a little under, sometime over). While I don't think this move is smart in the long term, there are plenty of chips to be made on older technologies. Think you would be surprised how many 130nm chips there are in current cell phones. People forget there is more than just a processor in there.
  • evanh - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    None of which makes it expensive.
  • Yojimbo - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    Well that seems to hang IBM out to dry. On the other hand I guess it releases them from whatever wafer agreement they have with GF. Maybe IBM will sell their Power CPU business.
  • KAlmquist - Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - link

    So what does this mean for AMD? First of all, AMD has already announced that it will be building some Zen 2 chips on the TSMC 7nm process:

    https://www.anandtech.com/show/13122/amd-rome-epyc...

    So AMD has already done the work of porting the Zen 2 design to the TSMC process. The only question is whether TSMC has the capacity to produce as many chips as AMD can sell.

    We are told that the Wafer Supply Agreement is being renegotiated rather than abandoned. The point of the WSA, as I understand it, was to commit AMD to buying some minimum number of chips each year in order to allow Global Foundries to recover the cost of developing new nodes. Since GF is no longer going to be developing new nodes or processes for AMD, it would make sense to dump the WSA. Perhaps AMD wants to have a WSA in effect for another year or so in order to have GF commit to producing a sufficient number of 14nm and 12mn chips for AMD to meet demand until AMD can switch most of its product line over to 7nm.

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